Is Society now too Complex for Us? - cont'd ( page 2 )

Book reviews and discussion by Andy James, B.Sc (Econ), FCA, MQT
(article published through Wholistic Healing Publications)

The first book by Homer-Dixon to attract widespread interest was The Ingenuity Gap: How Can we Solve the Problems of the Future? He writes:

“Most of us suspect that the world we have created is too complex and fast-paced for us to understand, let alone control. Most of us sometimes guess that even the ‘experts’ don’t really know what’s going on, and that as individuals and as a species we’ve unleashed forces that we cannot manage. The challenges facing our society range from international financial crises and global climate change to pandemics of tuberculosis and AIDS; they cross the spectrum of politics, economics, technology, and ecological affairs…….Complexity, unpredictability, the pace of events in our world, and the severity of global environmental stress, are soaring. If our societies are to manage their affairs and improve their well-being they will need more ingenuity – that is, more ideas for solving their technical and social problems” (Homer-Dixon, 2000, p 1)

“Looking back from the year 2100, we’ll see a period when our creations – technological, social, ecological – outstripped our understanding and we lost control of our destiny. And we will think: if only we’d had the ingenuity and will to prevent some of that. I am convinced that there is still time to muster that ingenuity, but the hour is late.” (Homer-Dixon, 2000, book jacket)

I corresponded with Homer-Dixon intermittently after Ingenuity Gap, but lost touch with his work until I noticed his 2007 bestseller, The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of Civilization. Again I was struck with the thoroughness and scope of his academic research and the resonance between his ideas and mine, especially as expressed in Ageless Wisdom Spirituality. He uses two parallels throughout his latest book: The Roman Empire and volcanoes. He identifies five “tectonic stresses” building beneath the surface of our societies:

1. Population stress, arising from the overall increase in global population and also the differing population growth rates in rich and poor societies. More megacities are expected to sprout in poor countries even as their populations en masse try to get into the rich countries, legally or illegally.
2. Energy stress, especially from the dwindling, harder to tap, oil resources.
3. Environmental stress from damage to land, water, forests and fisheries.
4. Climate stress resulting from changes in the makeup of our atmosphere.
5. Economic stress resulting from instabilities in the global economic system and the vast and widening gaps between rich and poor people.

He sees “Energy Stress” playing a pivotal role, since energy is the Master Resource on which all empires/ civilizations are built. For the Roman Empire and its dominance of the greater Mediterranean area, it was food/ agriculture, which fed its military armies and prolific builders. For modern global civilization, it is OIL. The days of cheap oil are over and from now on, it will cost us ever more effort/ energy for each barrel of oil produced and consumed. In formal economic terms, we have entered the phase of “diminishing marginal returns”.

As we work ever harder just to maintain our lifestyles, there is less and less resilience in society to absorb any “unexpected” natural disasters, pandemics or attacks, even by relatively small groups. Indeed Homer-Dixon points out two “multipliers” which give the “tectonic stresses” greater force and speed. “The first multiplier is the rising speed and global connectivity of our activities, technologies and societies. The second is the escalating power of small groups to destroy things and people”. He points out warning “foreshocks” like 9/11, the 2003 black out of America’s (and Canada’s) east coast, SARS etc. and why they have been ignored by our embedded denial systems.

Homer-Dixon also explains a puzzling dynamic which I have long pointed out in my writings and talks, but which no economist, entrepreneur or politician has so far been able to justify: What is the logic of society persevering with an economic system which stresses ever more consumption and “growth” (irrespective of what products are consumed) in the face of dwindling vital resources, degradation of the natural environment and the growing gap between the rich and poor? Why, for
example, does Canada (where I live) need to continually grow and compete with other countries, when it is in the uniquely fortunate position of having abundant natural resources, geographical advantageous borders (except in cases of extreme ill-will from the USA) and a highly educated and inventive population? He writes:

“In essence then, the logic underpinning our economies work like this: if we are discontented with what we have, we buy stuff; if we buy enough stuff, the economy grows; if the economy grows enough, technologically displaced workers can find jobs; and if they find enough jobs there will be enough economic demand to keep the economy humming and to prevent wrenching political conflict. Modern capitalism’s stability – and increasingly the global economy’s stability – requires the cultivation of material discontent, endlessly rising personal consumption, and the steady economic growth this consumption generates”. (Homer-Dixon, 2007, p196-197)

“Why? There are many reasons. But a central and often overlooked one is that consumerism helps anesthetize us against the dread produced by empty lives – lives that modern capitalism and consumerism have themselves helped empty of meaning.” (Homer-Dixon, 2007, p197)

As most of us will have guessed, in spite of the “Free” Market Democracy rhetoric, we do not really compete on a level playing field:

“Our economic elites don’t just encourage consumerism. Through their influence on the
media and on society’s political process, they create, reproduce and justify a pervasive and
interlocking system of rules and regulations.. that promotes growth and that, in the process,
buttresses their power and privilege.” (Homer-Dixon, 2007, p216)

“For the vast majority of us who sell our labor in the marketplace, our economic security and relative powerlessness impel us to play by the rules. And in capitalist democracy, playing by the rules means not starting fights over big issues like our society’s highly skewed distribution of wealth and power”. (Homer-Dixon, 2007, p217)

He warns that if we try to overextend the growth phase of our civilization, ignoring warning signs, it is like bottling up a volcano – the eventual explosion may lead to deep, devastating collapse, from which recovery will be painstaking and slow. Among the alternative options open to us is a nogrowth/ steady-state economy.

Although Homer-Dixon’s analysis of our present collective challenges is insightful, detailed and thoroughly researched, he offers no detailed suggestions in either of his books as to how the required change in human behaviour can or will occur. In his last chapter, he rightly remarks, “In Western liberal societies, public discussion of values is dreadfully impoverished…. Because we’re reluctant or unable to talk about moral and existential values – and these values remain largely unexplored – utilitarian values fill the void”. (Homer-Dixon, 2007, p300-301) He wonders about the possibility of a new Axial Age, “a transformation, simultaneously around the world, of the deepest principles guiding mankind’s diverse civilizations.” (Homer-Dixon, 2007, p300)

My book, Ageless Wisdom Spirituality, focuses on precisely this subject – not only like Homer- Dixon, pointing out the specific warning signs/ foreshocks in our collective lives, but explaining why collective change depends on individual change and what such change necessitates. It is beyond the scope of this article to adequately summarize Ageless Wisdom Spirituality and its implications, so I will just make a few points in conclusion:

1. Based on my personal and teaching experience, Simplicity can indeed overcome Complexity as Krishnamurti has asserted. If we are completely aware in the present moment, then we create Space/ Emptiness wherein the apparent opposites (Yin-Yang) are reconciled, whether Empty/ Full, Active/ Passive etc. In this space, understanding, wisdom and compassion can emerge. The Tao Te Ching states: “Non-existence is called the antecedent of heaven and earth; Existence is the mother of all things. From eternal nonexistence, therefore, we serenely observe the mysterious beginnings of the Universe. From eternal existence, we clearly see the apparent distinctions. These two are the same in source and become different when manifested”. (Chu Ta-Kao, 1972, p 11)

2. I see Simplicity Overcoming Complexity as an integrative and transformative spiritual process, which includes the Individual beginning to overcome Separateness (and thereby moving into Oneness), whether seen in terms of My religion Vs Your religion, Human Vs God, Rich Vs Poor, Black Vs White, East Vs White etc. Differences are not denied but understood in a different context, which may include different levels of reality or
consciousness.

3. Our collective crisis is occasioned not so much by inadequate resources, information and technologies, but by the fact that we waste so much in competition, conflict, war and sheer confused bungling. The necessary Collective Will to cooperate, trust and share will only come about through an expanded and deeper understanding of “I” and “We”. This of course will change our relationship with those we view as “The Other/ Them..

4. I do not think we need a new Axial Age so much as interpreting and actualizing the wisdom of the first Axial Age (twenty-five hundred years ago) at a deeper level, far beyond the religious polarization and fundamentalism which is now being paraded as spirituality. The Vedanta and the Buddha in India, Laozi and Confucius in China, and the early Greek philosophers all point to a possibility of human consciousness far higher than our present average consciousness. Over the last 400 years we have invested in the external world, while neglecting the internal and this has opened up a gap between the power of our technologies and our ability to use them wisely.

5. In order to embark on such a widespread journey of personal transformation of consciousness, we firstly (and urgently) need to talk about it in ways which are not yet broadly manifesting. At the moment, the mainstream media seems mesmerized by extremism, which makes more exciting news .. and in some cases, the “extremists” also control certain media outlets. On most TV networks, shows discussing religion, in trying to show “balance” and “fairness”, usually feature representatives of Judaism, Christianity and Islam, with Islam put forward as representing the East. In fact, all three are essentially the same Abrahamic religion, while the rest of the world’s spiritual treasure trove is ignored.

I would like to end on a personal, positive note. At the end of Ageless Wisdom Spirituality, I passionately called for such a public discussion (as in # 5 above). Shortly before the book was launched, I received a synchronous phone call from an old friend inviting me to join The Forge Guild, an international organization of trans-traditional spiritual teachers and leaders. Around about the same time, I built and opened a sustainable energy off-grid retreat centre and since then, my life has been filled with spiritual teachers and groups from many different global traditions!

References
James, Andy; Ageless Wisdom Spirituality: Investing in Human Evolution. Xlibris, U.S.A., 2003
Homer-Dixon, Thomas; The Ingenuity Gap: How Can we Solve the Problems of the Future? Alfred
A. Knopf, New York, Toronto, 2000
Homer-Dixon, Thomas; The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of
Civilization Vintage Canada, Toronto, 2007.
Translation by Chu Ta-Kao, Tao Te Ching, Unwin Books, London, 1972)

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